Venezuela: when the figures disagree, the method is the story
For the same, already finished year, ECLAC publishes 8.9% growth and the IMF 1.5%. Seven points apart is not a nuance: it is a usage warning.
Executive summary
Two multilateral bodies publish Venezuelan growth figures for 2025 that are 7.4 percentage points apart: 8.9% in ECLAC's Economic Survey of August 2026 and 1.5% in the IMF's World Economic Outlook of April 2026.
ECLAC revised its own estimate. In December 2025 it put that year at 6.5% and eight months later raised it to 8.9%. For 2026 it moved from projecting 3.0% to projecting 6.5%.
On inflation the distance is wider. The IMF projects 387.4% for 2026 and warns that it excludes Venezuelan prices from all its aggregates. ECLAC publishes no figure later than October 2024.
Neither institution is wrong. Both work with incomplete official information and both state so in writing. The mistake would be to take either figure as an input for a decision.
Context
A macroeconomic figure is not a direct observation: it is the result of applying a method to reported information. When that information is interrupted, each institution fills the gap with its own assumptions.
Venezuela is today the region's extreme case of that mechanism. Divergences between publications do not reflect political disagreement, but different reasonable ways of estimating what nobody is reporting.
Table 1 · The same economy, three publications
GDP growth, in percentages| Publication | Date | 2025 GDP | 2026 GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECLAC, Preliminary Overview 2025 | December 2025 | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| IMF, World Economic Outlook | April 2026 | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| ECLAC, Economic Survey 2026 | August 2026 | 8.9% | 6.5% |
Table 2 · Inflation: what each source publishes, and what it warns
consumer price change| Source | Reference | Value | Stated caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECLAC | Twelve months to December 2023 | 189.8% | Excluded from regional averages |
| ECLAC | Twelve months to October 2024 | 23.6% | No later figure in the 2025 table |
| IMF | Annual average for 2025 | 252.0% | IMF staff estimate |
| IMF | Projection for 2026 | 387.4% | Excluded from all WEO group composites |
| IMF | Projection for 2027 | 94.4% | "Interpret with caution", per the report |
Business implications
State the range, not the point. A plan that depends on whether the economy grew 1.5% or 8.9% does not need a figure: it needs two scenarios and a trigger showing which one is playing out.
Use your own high-frequency indicators. Billed volume, units shipped and days of inventory are verifiable and depend on no official publication whatsoever.
Pin the cut-off date of every figure you use. An August 2026 estimate of the year 2025 and an April 2026 estimate of that same year are not interchangeable.
Methodology & data
Three institutional publications on the same economy and the same years are compared: ECLAC's Preliminary Overview 2025, the IMF's World Economic Outlook of April 2026 and ECLAC's Economic Survey 2026. No proprietary estimate and no non-institutional source is incorporated.
The subject of this document is the divergence between sources, not the true magnitude of the variables.
References
ECLAC (December 2025). Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2025. · ECLAC (20 August 2026). Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2026. · International Monetary Fund (April 2026). World Economic Outlook, annex table 1.1.3 and the Country Notes of the Statistical Appendix.