Venezuela has official inflation and GDP series again
The Central Bank resumed monthly publication of its price index and the IMF restored relations with the country, with statistics production among its first tasks. The figures can now support budgeting, provided their revisions and the remaining gaps are managed.
Executive summary
In 2026 the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) resumed publishing its consumer price index, interrupted since late 2024, and filled in the months of 2025. August closed at 8.9% month on month, after a 19.9% spike in July that the bank attributed to the earthquakes of 24 June.
Quarterly GDP is published with large revisions. Growth for the second quarter of 2025 was announced at 6.65% and now stands at 9.20%; growth for the whole of 2025 went from 8.66% in the first release to 9.01%.
The IMF resumed relations with Venezuela on 16 April after a seven-year pause, and put helping restore economic data among its first priorities. Its July update still excludes the country, and the World Bank publishes no projections for lack of reliable data.
Several series remain frozen. Wholesale prices stop at January 2019, the wage index at the fourth quarter of 2013 and external debt at 2019, so labour and input costs still depend on companies' own sources.
Context
For more than a year, companies budgeted without an official price index and with international projections that were far apart. The return of the consumer price index restores a public reference for indexing contracts, prices and wages.
That reference comes with two conditions. The figures are provisional and get revised, sometimes by several points, and other series that companies used to estimate costs have not been updated in years.
Figure 1 · Monthly inflation in 2026, according to the BCV
Table 1 · Venezuela's GDP growth according to each source
| Source | Published | 2025 | 2026 projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| BCV | August 2026 | 9.01% | not published |
| ECLAC, Economic Survey | August 2026 | 8.9% | 6.5% |
| ECLAC, Preliminary Overview | December 2025 | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| IMF, World Economic Outlook | April 2026 | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| World Bank, Global Economic Prospects | June 2026 | not published | not published |
Business implications
Index with the CPI and document the version used. The official index makes it possible to adjust contracts and price lists against a verifiable reference. Each agreement should state which release is used and what happens if the figure is revised.
Treat quarterly GDP as provisional. Revisions of more than two points in a quarter are enough to change a sales forecast. Models that use GDP should be recalculated with every new release.
Separate bolívar inflation from hard-currency cost. So far in 2026 prices have risen faster than the official exchange rate, so local costs measured in dollars have increased. Budgeting in a single currency hides that effect.
Methodology & data
Series downloaded from the BCV website on 28 September 2026: consumer price index, quarterly and annual GDP, and the daily official exchange rate. Year-on-year inflation and the change in the exchange rate between monthly averages are own calculations. Projections come from the cited ECLAC, IMF and World Bank reports.
The BCV labels its 2025 and 2026 figures as provisional or preliminary.
References
Central Bank of Venezuela (4 September 2026). La inflación descendió a 8,9% en agosto. · Central Bank of Venezuela (18 August 2026). Aumento de 7,14% del PIB consolida 21 trimestres de crecimiento. · International Monetary Fund (16 April 2026). Press release 26/123 on the resumption of relations with Venezuela. · International Monetary Fund (April and July 2026). World Economic Outlook and its update. · World Bank (June 2026). Global Economic Prospects. · ECLAC (20 August 2026). Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2026. · ECLAC (December 2025). Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2025.